More Sabre Rattling?

In a new twist, the White House is almost appearing the most reasonable party involved in the latest geopolitical saber rattling, or flashpoint, developing as Venezuelan troops are reportedly completely deployed in three regions along the Columbian border, aside from invoking the word terrorism in defense of the Columbian military raid into Ecuador. The matter is further complicated by assertions that FARC was dealing in Uranium. After all, no military adventure is too costly when defending the world against Weapons of Mass Destruction. There is a qualitative difference in this tension, though, as it is being complicated by an arms deal. In this case, the vaunted F-16 would have been sold to Venezuela from Spain, had it not been for a veto from the United States. Secretary of Defense Gates is comfortable in the ability of the Columbian military to handle their own affairs. This is hardly the first time that there has been tension along this border, as observable by the airstrips built into the road system in eastern Columbia. The investment community has signalled strong support for the Columbian side, pushing the Columbia's main stock exchange to the highest gain on world markets. As usual, the Wikipedia site on the incident is the most comprehensive.

In other news, Syrian and Saudi officials met in Cairo in an effort to relieve the tensions in the region, namely in Gaza, Iraq, and Lebanon. The Saudis then held discussions on the side with an American envoy. The USS Cole has been relieved off the coast of Lebanon by two U.S. warships and has passed through the Suez Canal en route to the Persian Gulf, signaling a wider build up of U.S. Naval forces in the region. The head of Egypt's Head of Intelligence, Omar Suleiman, has canceled a planned visit to Israel, perhaps reflecting a response to Ban Ki-Moon's letter, a denunciation of Israel's operations in the Gaza Strip, a snub at the U.S.-led bloc, or a combination of the three. Judging from the militaristic propaganda, and pondering minor war crimes to avoid major war crimes, Israel is ready to fight.

Does anyone remember Somalia? The United States has conducted another air strike there, which is sure to keep the fires of war still burning.

Geopolitics: What Goes Bump in the Night

What is a threat? Is it a lone suicide bomber or a million man army on a hair trigger? The basis for this thought exercise, of course, is the size and quality of one's own forces. The quality and status of the American Armed Forces is beyond the scope of this current exercise, though. Therefore, for our purposes, we will assume that the U.S. is indeed the hyperpower beyond compare. So what is the biggest threat to the national security of the United States?

Pentagon general counsel William J. Haynes II feels not obtaining convictions in the military tribunals of terrorist suspects held in Guantanamo Bay's Camp X-Ray would be a threat to our national security. Former head of the prosecution of these prisoners, Air Force Col. Morris Davis, on the other hand, feels that opaque justice is the only way to see justice done. Even if these men were released today, how much would they still believe in the cause after up to six years of the strictly regimented and austere lifestyle afforded by Camp X-Ray's accommodations. I would be willing to bet that most of them would just go home and try to live out the rest of their lives trying to cope with what they've been through.

While Iraq may not be our 53rd state yet, the presence of 140,000 American troops means that our government throughout our continued presence in country will be forced to consider the security ramifications of a country in the middle of the most dangerous region of the world. So what a twisted web we weave when one of our NATO allies, Turkey, is potentially threatening the viability of the state that we're trying to carve out of the remnants of Saddam Hussein's regime. While the Bush administration characterizes the actions of the Turkish government as being responsible, this escalation will invariably agitate other regional powers, and stoke fears that Turkey seeks to impose its own order over Kurdistan.

Another threat that the Bush Administration is keenly aware of is the potential legal ramifications of the application of the Bush Doctrine. Thus, while Iran is alleged to pose a very real nuclear threat, members of the Coalition of the Willing are meeting to write and produce the 'third strike' resolution against Iran, ala the prequel to the invasion of Iraq. This incident smacks of another leading problem in the administration of the American National Security strategy, the human element of information interpretation. Documents the U.S. is using as the "smoking gun" are, predictably, be denounced as complete forgeries by the Iranian government. Curveball told the administration everything that they needed and wanted to hear about Iraq's illicit weapons programs, the accuracy of this information was criticized at the time by German Intelligence, and later by every other respectable intelligence agency that was worthy of the name. Remember this? Perhaps the thinkers in the Administration aren't creative enough to come up with another method to draw the world into another conflict that will further destabilize the energy infrastructure the world economy relies on. At any rate, there probably will be a third UN Resolution denouncing Iran. The reason for this is that the UN Security Council is about the only organization in the world that can legitimately overrule Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear energy program under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

One of the most dangerous positions in the world, though, is to be without friends. Thus, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the best salesman for the Military Industrial Complex, is touring Asia, and is currently enjoying two days of talks with Indian leaders. While the stalled nuclear deal will only be tangentially discussed, one can be sure that the U.S. Military's involvement in Pakistan and India's recent sea-based missile test will be near the top of the agenda, beneath promoting weapon sales. While military relations may be the goal of this trip, see China's agreement to release information on American POWs, one has to wonder whether this will actually be realized with the white elephant of historical tensions between Pakistan and India in the room. The lingering question, though, is whether the United States can successfully balance punishing Iran for violating the NPT while at the same time rewarding India with a nuclear agreement that will allow it to continue to develop nuclear weapons and delivery platforms.

Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister and presidential candidate, Dmitry Medvedev, warned in a campaign speech that the U.S. is placing Europe in a difficult position by recognizing Kosovo, yet is not taking any of the risk because of the intervening ocean. Given Russia's long term plans for Serbia, expect this issue to remain prickly.

But, of course, everyone knows that killer robots will be the primary threat of the 21st Century.