Space News Roundup, or Space Cowboy

Iran launched a satellite into orbit. This got a bunch of people's undies in a twist because it means that they theoretically have the tech necessary to put a missile anywhere in the world. We are thinking this way despite repeated assurances from even neutral observers that Iran is decades away from a nuke, because we are in a society that can't separate space technology from military technology. Which is the answer to the question of why we have better maps of Mars than our own ocean.

Two satellites smacked into each other over Siberia raising global concerns regarding orbital trash and legal concerns regarding the use of space. Who is at fault, the car that is out of control with no driver, or the one that could possibly have driven out of the way?

A backward, green comet, discovered by a Chinese youth, will be visible from earth in the next few days before the Sun flings it out of our solar system forever.

Geopolitics: What Goes Bump in the Night

What is a threat? Is it a lone suicide bomber or a million man army on a hair trigger? The basis for this thought exercise, of course, is the size and quality of one's own forces. The quality and status of the American Armed Forces is beyond the scope of this current exercise, though. Therefore, for our purposes, we will assume that the U.S. is indeed the hyperpower beyond compare. So what is the biggest threat to the national security of the United States?

Pentagon general counsel William J. Haynes II feels not obtaining convictions in the military tribunals of terrorist suspects held in Guantanamo Bay's Camp X-Ray would be a threat to our national security. Former head of the prosecution of these prisoners, Air Force Col. Morris Davis, on the other hand, feels that opaque justice is the only way to see justice done. Even if these men were released today, how much would they still believe in the cause after up to six years of the strictly regimented and austere lifestyle afforded by Camp X-Ray's accommodations. I would be willing to bet that most of them would just go home and try to live out the rest of their lives trying to cope with what they've been through.

While Iraq may not be our 53rd state yet, the presence of 140,000 American troops means that our government throughout our continued presence in country will be forced to consider the security ramifications of a country in the middle of the most dangerous region of the world. So what a twisted web we weave when one of our NATO allies, Turkey, is potentially threatening the viability of the state that we're trying to carve out of the remnants of Saddam Hussein's regime. While the Bush administration characterizes the actions of the Turkish government as being responsible, this escalation will invariably agitate other regional powers, and stoke fears that Turkey seeks to impose its own order over Kurdistan.

Another threat that the Bush Administration is keenly aware of is the potential legal ramifications of the application of the Bush Doctrine. Thus, while Iran is alleged to pose a very real nuclear threat, members of the Coalition of the Willing are meeting to write and produce the 'third strike' resolution against Iran, ala the prequel to the invasion of Iraq. This incident smacks of another leading problem in the administration of the American National Security strategy, the human element of information interpretation. Documents the U.S. is using as the "smoking gun" are, predictably, be denounced as complete forgeries by the Iranian government. Curveball told the administration everything that they needed and wanted to hear about Iraq's illicit weapons programs, the accuracy of this information was criticized at the time by German Intelligence, and later by every other respectable intelligence agency that was worthy of the name. Remember this? Perhaps the thinkers in the Administration aren't creative enough to come up with another method to draw the world into another conflict that will further destabilize the energy infrastructure the world economy relies on. At any rate, there probably will be a third UN Resolution denouncing Iran. The reason for this is that the UN Security Council is about the only organization in the world that can legitimately overrule Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear energy program under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

One of the most dangerous positions in the world, though, is to be without friends. Thus, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the best salesman for the Military Industrial Complex, is touring Asia, and is currently enjoying two days of talks with Indian leaders. While the stalled nuclear deal will only be tangentially discussed, one can be sure that the U.S. Military's involvement in Pakistan and India's recent sea-based missile test will be near the top of the agenda, beneath promoting weapon sales. While military relations may be the goal of this trip, see China's agreement to release information on American POWs, one has to wonder whether this will actually be realized with the white elephant of historical tensions between Pakistan and India in the room. The lingering question, though, is whether the United States can successfully balance punishing Iran for violating the NPT while at the same time rewarding India with a nuclear agreement that will allow it to continue to develop nuclear weapons and delivery platforms.

Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister and presidential candidate, Dmitry Medvedev, warned in a campaign speech that the U.S. is placing Europe in a difficult position by recognizing Kosovo, yet is not taking any of the risk because of the intervening ocean. Given Russia's long term plans for Serbia, expect this issue to remain prickly.

But, of course, everyone knows that killer robots will be the primary threat of the 21st Century.

Unintelligible Intelligence

Somewhere, deep in the labyrinthine catacombs that are the U.S. Intelligence Community, someone doing some red force thinking had a sudden, horrible revelation: women who appear pregnant have the perfect cargo carrying capacity that is seemingly above search. Who really wants to grope a pregnant woman to see if she really is with child? Combined with the fact that organizations have used women in the past to serve as suicide bombers, and the threat, perhaps borne of someone's dissatisfaction with their childhood, was solidified, at least in someone's mind. Thus, the word was spread all across the land, pregnant women are a threat and should be treated as hostile. As with most of the warnings since 9/11, this, too, springs forth from the fearmongering tendencies of the mainstream media. The way to be sure of this is the final paragraph of the aforelinked article, italics added for emphasis:

Authorities say there is "no specific, credible intelligence" that says terrorists are planning to use women and suicide bombers to attack, but the warning was sent to agencies across the country in the wake of recent attacks overseas.

There is no factual substance to this claim, and thus should not be regarded as credible. But, before I go into some of the threats as seen by the U.S. intelligence community, here is an article from Fox News' Mike Baker, who tries to crawl into Osama bin Laden's head and do some red force thinking of his own, and ultimately revealing his own prejudices. I can only hope that those who get paid to do this type of analysis work aren't as simplistic and biased. I like the line where he tries to take credit for being the first to use the complexity of snowflakes in a metaphor for unconventional threats.

This same intelligence community has also recently thought, or perhaps hoped, that bin Laden is dead, judging from a lack of temporal context from his last two videos. Also, the organization whose Director for Analysis went before the House Armed Services Committee and, making a political statement, said that Iran still possesses the technological and industrial infrastructure necessary to acquire a nuclear weapon. A community which exports its fearmongering to those who are notionally our allies, in order to adjust foreign policies, the most recent example of this being India. Mike McConnell, who as the National Director of Intelligence serves as the leader for the community, for instance, frames the threat posed by a newly re-invigorated Russia in terms of control over sources of energy. For an example of how the community is acting beyond the boundaries of the United States, one need only remember the extraordinary rendition program, or for a more timely example, the apparent assassination by car bomb of Hezbollah leader Imad Mughnieh in Damascus. Considering his position on the FBI's Top Ten Most Wanted List, it is not hard to imagine the U.S. Intelligence Community having taken an active interest in Mr. Mughnieh's health.


In conclusion, it would appear that the public product is half cocked fear mongering. Thus, Bush admonishing House lawmakers to approve expanded surveillance powers for this intelligence community is fundamentally flawed. Considering that they can't use the tools they already have to produce anything of any value, any expansion of said powers should be laughed out of the Congress. Also, considering the role of intelligence in the run up to the War in Iraq, the new intelligence offered to the IAEA and the international community.

For some additional flavor, mix in a look at how Defense Secretary Robert Gates' long involvement with the U.S. intelligence community and how it is influencing his strategy in the War on Terror and satellite sleuths seeking secrets.

Tons o' Guns

As always, there is a firestorm of news and protest surrounding U.S. foreign arms sales. And, of course, the countries involved are potential flashpoints for future conflicts.

From Iraq comes news that the Defense Department is bolstering its foreign military sales staff in Baghdad. In a program that was already plagued with problems of corruption and mismanagement, the problems were further compounded when the program realized the ridiculous leap in funding levels, from $200 million to $3 billion in only one year. The corruption in the acquisition process already has the potential to sour relations with our NATO ally, Turkey, as weapons bound for Iraqi troops have showed up in the hands of militant fighters fighting for an independent Kurdistan. However, due to the personnel shortage that accompanied the increased workload, the Iraqi government was forced to buy weapons from other countries. Now, members of Congress reportedly want to know whether American money was used to buy Chinese weapons for the Iraqi Army.

Arms sales, in fact, also provide one of the main sticking points between the United States and China, mainly weapons sales to the island of Taiwan. The economic problems that are the most prominent in the domestic, national discourse in U.S. relations with the PRC have been "underlined by the U.S. for years." However, the issue of Taiwan and the foreign arms sales are the basis for the other point of contention between the two superpowers. In fact this year, Section 1206 in the National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2007, the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee establishes some pretty firm policies. Emphasis has been added by author.

More importantly, the committee believes that
maintaining a balance of power across the Taiwan Strait is critical
to ensuring deterrence and preserving peace, security, and stability
in Asia. China’s National People’s Congress adopted an anti-secession
law that essentially authorizes China’s Central Military Commission
to use non-peaceful means against Taiwan if the latter declares
independence. The committee is concerned that this law, in
conjunction with an excessive military build-up by China, may signal
a weakening of deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. The committee
believes that the exchange program, by helping to strengthen
Taiwan’s defenses, would help preserve and strengthen deterrence,
thereby encouraging China and Taiwan to resolve their differences
peacefully.

Considering that Chinese military spending is growing to make the PLA one of, if not the, strongest land forces in the world, the logic of the policy is almost self-defeating. The amount of equipment and money necessary to maintain the vision of deterrence expounded by this doctrine is well beyond the means of the United States. Look for this policy to cause problems in the future, as the U.S. is left groping for a new tact to maintain the stability in the region that is so vital to the international shipping lanes. The real question that would help one in thinking of this problem is, what event could happen that would leap the PRC's political elite to abandon the current Nash Equilibrium enjoyed by all parties in the region, in favor of a military strike? To which, the U.S. is bound under law to look upon with "grave concern," as per the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

There is a new arms race brewing in South Asia, although not the usual type. In this case, the developed countries of the world are falling over themselves to provide India with the next generation of military equipment. Looking at potential spending reaching $40 billion dollars, it's not hard to imagine why countries would feel interested in the competition. Nicholas Burns, the Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs feels so strongly about the subject of U.S.-Indian ties that he wrote an article for the current issue of Foreign Affairs. I particularly enjoy who he actually tries to make the article sound sincere in believing that ideology trumps the buying power of the Indian rupee. Again, the subtext to the entire discussion is long-term ties with India, in the fact of a emerging threat from China in Asia.



Before going onto the next topic, enjoy a little video goodness.
















Now, the JDAM is going on sale to countries in the Gulf region, specifically Saudi Arabia, which has caused quite a bipartisan reaction on Capital Hill. One should consider, though, that Israel and its lobby aren't protesting the sale in and of itself, only the fact that sales of this type reduce the strategic and technological edge enjoyed that enforced deterrence and brought stability to the region. The sale is practically dead on arrival.

Finally, in Pakistan, an assassin has taken the life of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, but that shouldn't stand in the way of ever-stronger ties developing between the U.S. and Pakistan. In particular, this event will not interfere in anyway with the proposed $2.1 billion arms deal in progress. Pakistan is slated to purchase 18 F-16s of the C and D variants.

The end result of all of this is that American foreign policy, especially in the case of Pakistan, is being pulled into a cycle of arming one side to counter another threat that may or may not be of its own creation. And while arms sales and military relations reach new highs, things such as civil society and rule of law tend to be left by the way side. The Military Industrial Complex isn't exactly a democratic institution, after all. Those who are in a strong position to regulate this very important facet of foreign policy are focusing on other priorities, to say the least. Instead of controlling the number of arms distributed internationally, they are worried about the transfer of sensitive information, and the ramifications of Globalization on the MIC, but more on that later.

When Intelligence isn't Spin, Spinsters React

Since the publication on a National Intelligence Estimate about Iran and its nuclear weapon, the Bush administration, by many accounts, seems to be in full strategic retreat. However, as Dan Froomkin from washingtonpost.com reported, W has already started covering his own liability. Since he has had a few more months than the rest of the country to prepare for the release of the NIE, you can be sure that he has already appropriately adjusted his warmongering. Here is a look at how the NIE was produced.

Surprisingly, the news media is still listening to Norman Podhoretz and John Bolton about anything, and specifically in this case, intelligence. Here is a report that relies upon their opinions, yet doesn't point out the problem with citing them as experts. Norman Podhoretz, for instance, made a career of out of being a neoconservative pundit before the heyday of neoconservatism. One of his earliest and best-known works is a racist diatribe about how he hated black people. But, more relevant to the current discussion is his complete lack of experience in the intelligence community. While he may be retired now, he was an original signatory of the "Project for the New American Century," the ideological framework for W's administration and foreign policy, meaning that he is deeply invested in making sure that history has a favorable impression of the administration. John Bolton, for his part, is also intensely involved in the Project. He has made a career for being a diplomat or wandering mouth for conservative presidents. Bolton also has no experience in working in the intelligence community, but does have something of a reputation for cooking intelligence for political purposes. Since the intelligence community is notionally no longer under the thumb of the neoconservatives that make up the decision-making in the W administration, these two old warriors are now resorting to ad hominem attacks on what appears to be dissident voices within the federal bureaucracy. "But I (Norman Podhoretz) entertain an even darker suspicion. It is the intelligence community, which has for so many years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W Bush, is doing it again." Behold, the evolution of spin, now those who pushed the intelligence community to supply, what can most graciously be called, misleading intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, accuse those who are career intelligence officials of politicizing their work.

The Pentagon, for its part, has dispatched the uniformed Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, to Israel to speak with their Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, and their intelligence analysts. During the whirlwind 24 hour visit, Adm. Mullen will probably explain the constitution and the fact that the President doesn't really need the support of the American people to expand the war to Iran, something that would be hard to understand for those who live in a free, demoratic society.

Reps. Peter Hoekstra (MI 2nd) and Jane Harman (CA 36th) published an op-ed today in the Wall Street Journal questioning the quality of the intelligence organization that they were notionally in charge of overseeing as Ranking Members and Chairpersons of the House Intelligence Committee. Defending the mischaracterizations of intelligence on the part of the W administration, "..., intelligence is in many ways an art, not an exact science." In summation, the entire piece reads like an apology for delivery the wrong intelligence, although they also go into a little ad homineming against the intelligence analysts who produced the report (the confidence remark).

Military Industrial Complex

Despite there being no threat of a nuke from Iran, Bush wishes to rush ahead with the European Missile Shield. Not to mention, it pisses Russia off. Through all this the old media never mentions the miliary industrial complex.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_industrial_complex

Evidence is itself, circumstantial

As if anyone was actually thought that Iran was building the bomb, in rides the American Intelligence community to put all such mistaken notions to bed. However, just like five years ago, the evidence doesn't matter and won't effect policy in any significant fashion. David Kay and the UN inspectors were systematically combing Iraq, looking for any hint that Saddam was reconstituting his chemical and biological weapons programs. So, after we invade Iraq, surprise, surprise, America wakes up to find that it was lied to and flattered into doing something repugnant. However, the guilt that we should all feel can't be washed away with a tear-filled shower. So, now five years later, and we still collectively resemble a drunk sorority girl who has self-esteem issues.

"Yes, honey, I'm doing this to protect you, because you're so important to me. Why don't you just drink a little bit more and shut the fuck up so we can move on to the main event? Oh, can you get the cab fare back to your house? I have some wicked credit card bills. And I won't pull out or wear a condom because I'm a misogynist Christian."

There is still a chance that we won't invade or otherwise attack Iran. Please call your elected representative and flex your democratic power. We need to stop this blood for oil cycle and the imperial presidency made possible by the Bush Doctrine.

Iran abandoned its nuke program 3 years ago

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWBT00801220071204

Here we are again with a warmongering administration raising the specter of a threat from the middle east and it seems like noone can stop the inevitable war. A war for no reason, with no goals, and no prospect for any kind of success.

Oh but here is an article that contradicts the Bush administration's exaggerations. Lets hope the old media isnt as spineless this time around and actually sticks with this set of facts rather then the jingoism and fear we are so familar with.

Get to know Iran

Take a look at thees beautiful pictures of the country of Iran before our warmongering government decides to destroy that beauty and its people.

http://picasaweb.google.com/aatrvash/Iran02?authkey=WHfBV-cDZ2E

shorten your briefs

Myanmar: a new internet blackout, coupled with the expulsion of the UN Special Envoy, forbodes trouble. The opposition claims that it's strength is waxing, but the military has only begun to respond. Meanwhile, a look at the govt's recruiting efforts, the life of one of the youngest members of the country's elite and his life in singapore, and why his life is about to become much more complicated.

Ivory Coast: What some see as a tenuous peace process moves at a careful pace, while questions are raised about fattening war chests.

Zimbabwe: Under the strangely opaque lighting of continuing negotiations between the government ZANU-PF and the opposition MDC, the two parties have agreed to postpone elections to March of '08. Will these negotiations lead to resolution of the crisis facing Zimbabwe? I bet on no. Phillip Pasirayi also bets on no, though for slightly different reasons.

The Bomb: A resolution will be coming soon to a UN General Assembly near you, with the usual suspects already voting in their respective ways. The world powers dispatch their representatives to London to talk about Iran's bomb. The Bush administration is trying to bully the other permanent members of the UN Security Council for license to attack Iraq, er, Iran. Sorry, I had a moment of deja vu there. North Korea, meanwhile, might soon be rid of their bomb. Germany wants a piece of the potential pie that is the Indian Nuclear Deal, which PM Singh says is only delayed. And check out Hindustan Times' "Nuclear Deal Imbroglio" page.

Someone stop this shit!

I am trying hard not to start this post with an accusitory statement directed at Bush and the Media but its really hard when everything is their fault. Ok heres an idea, its your fault! Why havent you done something to let the media know you dont want anoother war, let alone one with Iran? Why dont you tell the government? You have elected representatives that are supposed to listen to you. If enough of us said something mabye it wont happen. Instead, war with Iran looks like a foregone conclusion.

Centcom has been gathering info on Iranin targets.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2512097.ece

The administration has been gathering dirt to use to point out Iran's many flaws.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/30/wiran230.xml

The U.S. trains middle eastern militaries to fight against Iran.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/30/wiran130.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

But now that I go back and look for stories it appears that the freedom hating British are the only ones who care enough to report this.

In the immortal words of Kent Brockman, "this reporter places the blame squarely on you, the people."