Anticipating the Worst

John Kerry hosted a discussion last week where he had a round table of experts engage in hysterics regarding the recession and asked them to criticize his party's stimulus, the one he cosponsored. One of their doomsday warnings was that major wars, such as World War II, are preceded by long periods of economic recession. They predicted such an outcome if the current recession lasts, oh say more than two years.

This, in relation to certain things I have been hearing people say, leads me to be concerned. My specific concern is a sensitive one to discuss, however I feel that it is necessary to discuss in the interests of preparedness and prevention. The subject of race riots. If we recall, WWII and most regional conflicts in recent history were preceded by racial unrest or have a racial element to the conflict. Iraq, Darfour, Bosnia, Rwanda.

The things that I have been hearing that worry me are a linking of the effects of the recession on individuals to illegal immigration of Hispanics. I have heard people remark, "why should I be worried about the civil rights of illegal immigrants I can't even find a job myself." To be sure, I have only heard this sentiment coming from racist people who already bemoan bilingual signage. Still, the linking of the bad effects of the recession on individuals, by the individuals themselves, through the issue of illegal immigration, to a specific racial category of people, is what worries me. The immigration debate already inflames gun toting extremists to the point of mobilization. And the Minutemen were in existence when we were still relatively prosperous. I fear the recruitment power the recession will have for violent racist radicals.

This will be the kind of thing that plays out like prior race riots. On the streets in the poor parts of the country people will feel the pressure building every day. That sense of racial tension will never see the light of day in the MSM until the flood waters suddenly burst forth in a regional paroxysm of violence. Local riots will break out and only local outlets will cover them until they become either large, or last multiple days, or become shocking in some other way. Then the national MSM will start saying what had been obvious to 1/4 of the country for months. This will all be a complete shock to white middle class midwesterners who will wake up one morning as the MSM brings their attention to race riots already in progress.



Honestly, I hope it doesn't happen that way. Maybe it will just be local like the riots over the killing of Oscar Grant III. Or maybe the racial tension will never reach critical mass, or maybe the catalyst will never appear. I am just worried at the pace with which racist sentiment against Latinos has changed under the influence of the recession. For practical purposes, we should be concerned with good relations with Mexico because a good portion of their GDP is remittances from the US, and they recently discovered epic shit tons of oil. We should stay friendly with our neighbors.

Ben Franklin Report: the Economic Stimulus

In the course of putting together their bipartisan economic stimulus package together, Congressional Democrats are willing to put aside something as small as the rule of law. After all, it wouldn't be prudent to try to bring contempt citations against former White House officials during the middle of negotiations, nonetheless the mountain of lies that led up to the Iraq War.

Bush hasn't outlined his plan, per se, just given a rough outline, namely a "robust" package with a $150 billion price tag. All of the key players in Washington have some version of the stimulus on their wish list, and each has already staked out his or her position on the matter. The Republicans and Democrats in Congress are pondering how to bridge the philosophical divide between individual tax rebates and decreasing business taxes. Lou Dobbs, ever the interested observer, says that the economy is going into a recession and there isn't much that a stimulus could hope to accomplish.

Of course, the presidential candidates of both parties aren't to be left out of the fray, each of them is sticking their pole into a position. We can probably expect to see more of the petty bickering among the Democratic candidates that they've exemplified so far. What they hope to accomplish using the decade-old "No Friends in Politics" mindset that has gotten us so far over the course of Republican control of the Congress. The only candidate who is actively against the stimulus is the one candidate who isn't officially running, Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-$$$$) of New York City, who sees the giveaway as bad fiscal policy.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office is seeing the glass as more than half full. Focusing more on the $219 billion dollar deficit that the government has run so far this year, and predicting that the economy won't hit recession levels.

Regardless of how I otherwise disagree with Mayor Bloomberg's politics, I find his position the most reasonable. With another year of phenomenal deficit in the face of countervailing trends, this drop into the general economy will prime the markets for further spending, if the authors of the agreement see their dreams come to fruition. I remain skeptical. With the further aggravation of the deficit, this will further aggravate the U.S. National Debt, and contribute to a worsening macroeconomic situation. On Aug. 9, 2009, by my rough calculations, the clock will turn over to $10 trillion dollars, or roughly the same as our annual GDP, barring additional spending or the unlikely attempt to pay it down.

As another reminder on why not to put off anything, negotiations are over and the stimulus package has been assembled. Unfortunately, workers who earned less than $75K or couples who earned less than $150K, will earn approximately $300 and $1200, respectively. This little drop is hardly likely to inspire the next bubble, unless it's for pharmaceuticals; breweries, wineries, and distilleries; or for local head shops.